Redfin’s real estate scientists published a big, glorious new report today on when homes will sell for a big discount and when they won’t, based on thousands of home sales across the country.
We spent two months grinding through the data because every day, we see buyers with born-to-lose tattoos on their foreheads making lowball offers doomed to instant failure. And then sometimes they win.
Nuts! Figuring out fast when a deal will fly and when it won’t is the key to making our margins work.
We’ve tried to sort out when a seller will give ground, a posting that immediately set off a discussion at Newsweek and U.S. News & World Report and across the blogs. We’ve talked about it on TV.
Meanwhile, pricing discussions have been all the rage in our discussion forums, with visitors asking how negotiable new construction is, or even what to offer on an individual property.
Enter the real estate scientist, who shreds MLS data, website logs, academic research and tax records to provide reliable answers to practical questions: what really works when marketing a listing, what type of listings sell in less than seven days, whether high commissions lead to faster sales (they don’t).
Today’s report is about how to find the sweetest deals. Redfin’s Rob McGarty and M
ose Andre crunched the numbers for all 9,053 sales of single-family homes in Fairfax (Virginia ‘burbs), King (Seattle area) and Los Angeles counties, between April 15 and June 15 this year, to look at homes that sold for a lot less than the asking price.
What surprised us right off the bat was how small the average discount was: after all the bad news about the housing market, it was still less than 2.5%. We were also surprised to see that a small fraction of listings got a huge discount, of more than 10% off list price.
This means that 90% of the time, lowballers are wasting their time. But that 10% of the time, they’re saving $50,000. The trick is finding the listings ripe for a discount.
So for each market we split the sales into two buckets: those that got the biggest discount (top ten percentile, an average of 11.4% off the final asking price), and all the rest (the 90th percentile and below, which got an average discount of 1.5%).
Then we compared the two groups to see what the sales involving a big discount had in common:
1. 83% more likely to have been on the market for 90+ days.
2. 73% more likely to be marketed as fixer-uppers.
3. 20% less likely to feature a noteworthy remodel.
4. 28% more likely to have already been price-reduced (though there were some confounding factors).
5. 52% more likely to have been seller-owned for 20 years or more.
6. 9% more likely to have been seller-owned for less than five years, a slight but surprising correlation.
7. Only 9% more likely to be a short sale or bank-owned. Most consumers expect this correlation to be much stronger.
The portrait that emerged is of a bimodal market (much like the VC market right now) — a few homes in the most sought-after neighborhoods sell for well above asking price, most sell near the asking price and anything distressed or run-down (more homes are run-down now than before so the drop in prices is in part a reflection of the drop in the quality of the homes being sold) just keeps dropping and dropping.
The bottom-line is that the condition of the home and its length of time on the market — surprise, surprise — are the main drivers for discounting — but how long the seller has owned the home is a big factor too. And foreclosures aren’t as negotiable as people think.
The report has already gotten picked up by the LA Times and now the Seattle Times too (FRONT PAGE!!!).
Get the full paper (PDF), which breaks out all the data by county, and goes into the methodology too.
See the original post:
More Real Estate Science! Finding the Sweetest Deals
Related Posts
- Pacific Beach, San Diego Real Estate, July 2006 Home Sales Data
Pacific Beach is located on the central coast of San Diego County within the 92109 Zip Code. If you are interested in Pacific Beach real estate, then you should find the information below useful. The following summarizes sales data for detached single-family homes and attached condominiums and townhomes. This sales data covers the period from July 1, 2006 through July 31, 2006.
Approximately 18 detached single-family were homes were sold during July 2006. Of these 18 homes, the average asking price was $992,598. The average sales price was $946,211. This results in a sale price/list price (SP: LP) ratio of 96%, meaning that on average, sellers obtained 96% of their asking price. The average time to sell a home was 55 days.
A detailed evaluation of these 18 single-family homes is provided below.
a. Five of these homes had two or fewer bedrooms. The average list price was $702,400. The average sales price was $689,000. The SP:LP was 98%. The average time to sell this type of home was 57 days.
b. Nine of these homes had three bedrooms. The average list price was $1,089,975. The average ales price was $1,031,867. The SP:LP ratio was 95%. The average time to sell this type of home was 52 days.
c. Three of these homes had four bedrooms. The average list price was $1,025,000. The average sales price was $968,333. The SP:LP ratio was 95%. The average time to sell this type of home was 63 days.
d. One home sold with five or more bedrooms. The average list price was $1,470,000. The average sales price was $1,395,000. The SP:LP ratio was 95%. The average time to sell a home was 50 days.
Approximately 25 detached condominium or townhomes were sold in July 2006. The average list price of these 25 units was $650,072. The average sales price was $620,772. The SP: LP ratio was 96%. The average time to sell these units was 55 days.
A detailed evaluation of these 25 units is provided below.
a. Eighteen of these units had two or fewer bedrooms. The average list price was $536,877. The average sales price was $510,527. The SP:LP ratio was 96%. The average time to sell this type of unit was 65 days.
b. Six of these units had three bedrooms. The average list price was $926,166. The average sales price was $886,333. The SP: LP ratio was 97%. The average time to sell this type of unit was 28 days.
c. One of these units had four bedrooms. The list price was $1,031,000. The sales price was $1,011,800. The SP: LP ratio was 98%. The unit took 16 days to sell.
If you are interested in the Pacific Beach real estate market, contact a San Diego Realtor to assist you with the home buying process.San Diego Real EstateRiverside Real EstatePacific Beach Real Estate
Wordpress Yahoo Answers Autoposter Plugin - Coronado, San Diego, Real Estate Market Trends, Single-family Homes, Mid Year Analysis, 2006
The community of Coronado is located on the central coast of San Diego County. This 13.5 square mile peninsula is accessible via the famous Coronado Bay Bridge, by water ferry from Downtown San Diego, or through Imperial Beach via highway 75.
The real estate and homes for sale in Coronado are some of the most expensive properties in San Diego County. The number of homes sold in a particular year is relatively low. For example, during the period from January through July 2006, approximately 64 single-family homes sold. Approximately 79 homes sold for the same period in 2005. The price of homes in Coronado varies widely from moderately priced small cottages to multi-million dollar estates.
One method to analyze pricing trends for a particular community is to evaluate the median and average price of homes for a particular month, and compare that data against the same period last year. What follows is a comparison of the median price and average price of homes for the past seven months (January through July 2006), compared against the data for the corresponding time period in 2005.
The median price of homes represents the point at which half the homes are above a particular price point, and half the homes are below a particular price point. The average price of homes is calculated by adding up the sales price of all homes sold in a particular month, and dividing that value by the number of homes sold.
The median price of homes in July 2006 was $1,505,000, compared to $1,481,250 in July 2005, which represents a 1.6% increase. The average price of homes in July 2006 was $1,795,179, compared to $1,603,214 in July 2005, which represents an 11.5% drop. Approximately 7 homes sold in July 2006 and 14 in July 2005. In summary, the data was mixed for July 2006, with the median price posting a small increase and the average price dropping 11.5%.
The median price of homes in June 2006 was $1,775,000, compared to $1,570,000 in June 2005, which represents a 13.1% increase. The average price of homes in June 2006 was $1,998,860, compared to $1,778,214 in June 2005, which represents a 12.4% increase. Approximately 15 homes sold in June 2006 and 21 in June 2005. In summary, the data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in June 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in May 2006 was $1,200,000, compared to $1,390,000 in May 2005, which represents a 13.7% drop. The average price of homes in May 2006 was $1,576,429, compared to $1,615,692 in May 2005, which represents a 2.4% drop. Approximately 7 homes sold in May 2006 and 13 in May 2005. In summary, the data provides evidence that there was a downward price trend in May 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in April 2006 was $2,250,000, compared to $1,450,000 in April 2005, which represents a 55.2% increase. The average price of homes in April 2006 was $2,667,200, compared to $1,731,524 in April 2005, which represents a 54% increase. Approximately 10 homes sold in April 2006 and 7 in April 2005. In summary, the data provides evidence that there was a significant upward price trend in April 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in March 2006 was $1,650,000, compared to $1,780,000 in March 2005, which represents a 7.3% drop. The average price of homes in March 2006 was $2,219,667, compared to $1,774,667 in March 2005, which represents a 25.1% increase. Approximately 15 homes sold in March 2006 and 9 in March 2005. In summary, the data was mixed for March 2006, with a drop in median price and an increase in average price.
The median price of homes in February 2006 was $1,185,000, compared to $875,000 in February 2005, which represents a 35.4% increase. The average price of homes in February 2006 was $1,327,000, compared to $1,011,667 in February 2005, which represents a 31.2% increase. Approximately 5 homes sold in February 2006 and 3 in February 2005. In summary, the data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in February 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes was $1,700,000 in January 2006, compared to $1,531,500 in January 2005, which represents an 11% increase. The average price of homes in January 2006 was $1,599,000, compared to $1,717,750 in January 2005, which represents a 6.9% drop. Approximately 5 homes sold in January 2006 and 12 in January 2005. In summary, the data was mixed for January 2006, with a jump in median price and a decline in average price.
So what does the above data tell us? Overall, there was a 19% decline in the number of homes sold during this period from 2006 to 2005. Besides that, the Coronado real estate market is very hard to characterize because of the limited number of homes that sell every month, and the wide variation in home prices. The median and average prices fluctuated substantially depending on whether or not very expensive homes sold that month or not. Prospective home buyers should seek the advise of an experienced real estate agent to help them understand the micro pricing trends of homes in their price range.
- Clairemont, San Diego, Real Estate Market Trends, Single-family Homes, Mid Year Analysis, 2006
The community of Clairemont (sometimes called Clairemont Mesa) is located in central San Diego County, California. The community is located off Interstate 5 at Balboa Ave and is within the 92117 Zip code.
The real estate and homes for sale in Clairemont fall into the moderate-income category for San Diego County. The number of homes sold in a particular year is relatively high. For example, during the period from January through July 2006, approximately 183 single-family homes sold. Approximately 226 homes sold for the same period in 2005.
One method to analyze pricing trends for a particular community is to evaluate the median and average price of homes for a particular month, and compare that data against the same period last year. What follows is a comparison of the median price and average price of homes for the past seven months (January through July 2006), compared against the data for the corresponding time period in 2005.
The median price of homes represents the point at which half the homes are above a particular price point, and half the homes are below a particular price point. The average price of homes is calculated by adding up the sales price of all homes sold in a particular month, and dividing that value by the number of homes sold.
The median price of homes in July 2006 was $560,000, compared to $562,500 in July 2005, which represents a 0.9% drop. The average price of homes in July 2006 was $575,114, compared to $585,602 in July 2005, which represents a 2.4% drop. Approximately 21 homes sold in July 2006 and 26 in July 2005. The data provides evidence that there was a downward price trend in July 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in June 2006 was $555,000, compared to $570,000 in June 2005, which represents a 2.6% drop. The average price of homes in June 2006 was $586,758, compared to $584,415 in June 2005, which represents a 0.4% increase. Approximately 30 homes sold in June 2006 and 34 in June 2005. The data for June 2006 was mixed, as median prices declined and average prices rose slightly from the same period last year.
The median price of homes in May 2006 was $550,000, compared to $562,000 in May 2005, which represents a 2.3% drop. The average price of homes in May 2006 was $584,012, compared to $582,000 in May 2005, which represents a 0.3% increase. Approximately 33 homes sold in May 2006 and 37 in May 2005. The data was mixed in June 2006, as median prices declined and average prices rose slightly from the same period last year.
The median price of homes in April 2006 was $564,000, compared to $565,000 in April 2005, which represents a 0.20% drop. The average price of homes in April 2006 was $584,722, compared to $612,897 in April 2005, which represents a 4.6% drop. Approximately 32 homes sold in April 2006 and 36 in April 2005. The data provides evidence that there was a downward price trend in April 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in March 2006 was $558,000, compared to $545,000 in March 2005, which represents a 1.5% increase. The average price of homes in March 2006 was $589,161, compared to $576,227 in March 2005, which represents a 3.60% increase. Approximately 29 homes sold in March 2006 and 39 in March 2005. The data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in March 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in February 2006 was $560,000, compared to $525,000 in February 2005, which represents a 7.4% increase. The average price of homes in February 2006 was $582,435, compared to $571,708 in February 2005, which represents a 2.50% increase. Approximately 17 home sold in February 2006 and 29 in February 2005. The data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in February 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes was $585,000 in January 2006, compared to $525,000 in January 2005, which represents a 10% increase. The average price of homes in January 2006 was $634,524, compared to $542,708 in January 2005, which represents a 16.9% increase. Approximately 21 homes sold in January 2006 and 25 in January 2005. The data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in January 2006 compared to the same period last year.
So what does the above data tell us? Overall, there was a 19% decline in the number of homes sold during this period from 2006 to 2005. The pricing trends early in the year (January, February and March) were in the upward direction for both median and average prices, which showed increases year-over-year ranging from 1.5% to 16.9%. However, since then, the pricing trend has been downward or mixed depending on the month. For example, April and July demonstrated downward median and average prices ranging from around half a percent up to 5%. For May and June, the median price was down around 2% from the previous year, and the average price was slightly up around half a percent. These findings suggest that at best, prices have leveled off, and at worst, are starting to decline. Continued monitoring of sale data in subsequent months is needed to identify enduring market trends.
Be sure to consult your Realtor on other factors that influence home pricing before buying or selling real estate in Clairemont.
San Diego Real EstateMarket Trends Data SourcePacific Beach Real Estate
Wordpress Article Autoposter Plugin - Golden Hill, San Diego, Real Estate Market Trends, Single-family Homes, Mid Year Analysis, 2006
The Golden Hill region is located near Downtown San Diego County, California. The community is located between Interstates 5 and 15, just south of the famous Balboa Park.
For the period observed (January through July 2006 compared against January through July 2005), the number of homes sold remained relatively consistent. Approximately 74 single-family homes sold in 2006 and 76 homes sold in 2005.
One method to analyze pricing trends for a particular community is to evaluate the median and average price of homes for a particular month, and compare that data against the same period last year. What follows is a comparison of the median price and average price of homes for the past seven months (January through July 2006), compared against the data for the corresponding time period in 2005.
The median price of homes represents the point at which half the homes are above a particular price point, and half the homes are below a particular price point. The average price of homes is calculated by adding up the sales price of all homes sold in a particular month, and dividing that value by the number of homes sold.
The median price of homes in July 2006 was $572,000, compared to $425,000 in July 2005, which represents a 34.6% increase. The average price of homes in July 2006 was $551,875, compared to $466,636 in July 2005, which represents a 19.5% increase. Approximately 8 homes sold in July 2006 and 11 in July 2005. In summary, there was an upward price trend in July 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in June 2006 was $451,500, compared to $540,000 in June 2005, which represents a 16.4% drop. The average price of homes in June 2006 was $457,600, compared to $514,846 in June 2005, which represents an 11.1% decline. Approximately 10 homes sold in June 2006 and 13 in June 2005. In summary, there was a downward price trend in June 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in May 2006 was $500,000, compared to $430,000 in May 2005, which represents a 13.9% increase. The average price of homes in May 2006 was $545,067, compared to $465,727 in May 2005, which represents a 10.5% increase. Approximately 15 homes sold in May 2006 and 11 in May 2005. In summary, there was an upward price trend in May 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in April 2006 was $442,500, compared to $510,000 in April 2005, which represents an 8.3% drop. The average price of homes in April 2006 was $448,071, compared to $512,067 in April 2005, which represents a 10.9% decline. Approximately 14 homes sold in April 2006 and 15 in April 2005. In summary, there was a downward price trend in April 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in March 2006 was $415,250, compared to $437,500 in March 2005, which represents an 8.2% decrease. The average price of homes in March 2006 was $451,886, compared to $428,375 in March 2005, which represents a 5.5% increase. Approximately 14 homes sold in March 2006 and 12 in March 2005. The data was mixed for March 2006, as the median price dropped and the average price increased from the same time last year.
The median price of homes in February 2006 was $452,500, compared to $512,500 in February 2005, which represents a 6.7% drop. The average price of homes in February 2006 was $483,128, compared to $503,625 in February 2005, which represents a 1.7% decline. About 8 homes sold in February 2006 and 8 in February 2005. In summary, there was a downward price trend in February 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes was $455,000 in January 2006, compared to $500,000 in January 2005, which represents a 9% decline. The average price of homes in January 2006 was $446,280, compared to $467,483 in January 2005, which represents a 1.3% drop. Approximately 5 homes sold in January 2006 and 6 in January 2005. In summary, there was a downward price trend in January 2006 compared to the same period last year.
So what does the data tell us? Well, the data above does not reveal a consistent pattern. The home prices for May and July 2006 were up year-over-year in the range of 10% to 35% from the same period last year. However, prices were down 1% to 16% during January, February, April and June 2006, compared to the same time last year. The data for March 2006 was mixed, with the median price dropping 8.2%, and the average price increasing 5.5% for the same time last year. Given the ups and down described above, a longer period of evaluation is needed to determine if a clear pattern emerges. Contact an experienced Realtor to obtain additional insights about the pricing trends in the Golden Hill real estate market.
San Diego Real EstateMarket Trends Data SourcePacific Beach Real Estate
WP Robot Wordpress Autoposter - College Grove, San Diego, Real Estate Market Trends, Single-family Homes, Mid Year Analysis, 2006
The College Grove region (also know as the College Area) is located in central San Diego County, California. The community is located off Interstate 8 just east of Interstate 15. San Diego State University is located within the borders of the College Grove area.
The real estate and homes for sale in College Grove fall into the low to mid-income categories. The number of homes sold in a particular year is relatively high. For example, during the period from January through July 2006, approximately 211 single-family homes sold. Approximately 268 homes sold for the same period in 2005.
One method to analyze pricing trends for a particular community is to evaluate the median and average price of homes for a particular month, and compare that data against the same period last year. What follows is a comparison of the median price and average price of homes for the past seven months (January through July 2006), compared against the data for the corresponding time period in 2005.The median price of homes represents the point at which half the homes are above a particular price point, and half the homes are below a particular price point. The average price of homes is calculated by adding up the sales price of all homes sold in a particular month, and dividing that value by the number of homes sold.
The median price of homes in July 2006 was $545,000, compared to $497,000 in July 2005, which represents a 9.2% increase. The average price of homes in July 2006 was $583,476, compared to $528,602 in July 2005, which represents a 10% increase. Approximately 25 homes sold in July 2006 and 38 in July 2005. The data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in July 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in June 2006 was $475,000, compared to $506,500 in June 2005, which represents a 5.9% drop. The average price of homes in June 2006 was $492,427, compared to $516,078 in June 2005, which represents a 4.1% drop. Approximately 38 homes sold in June 2006 and 40 in June 2005. The data provides evidence that there was a downward price trend in June 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in May 2006 was $522,000, compared to $518,500 in May 2005, which represents a 0.7% increase. The average price of homes in May 2006 was $544,812, compared to $537,085 in May 2005, which represents a 1.4% increase. Approximately 30 homes sold in May 2006 and 46 in May 2005. The data provides evidence that there was slight upward price trend in May 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in April 2006 was $520,000, compared to $495,000 in April 2005, which represents a 5.1% increase. The average price of homes in April 2006 was $523,421, compared to $524,306 in April 2005, which represents a 0.2% drop. Approximately 41 homes sold in April 2006 and 47 in April 2005. The data for April 2006 was mixed, as the median price showed a moderate increase from last year, while the average price had a slight drop.
The median price of homes in March 2006 was $515,000, compared to $489,000 in March 2005, which represents a 5.3% increase. The average price of homes in March 2006 was $564,690, compared to $499,856 in March 2005, which represents a 13.4% increase. Approximately 41 homes sold in March 2006 and 44 in March 2005. The data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in March 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes in February 2006 was $472,500, compared to $465,000 in February 2005, which represents a 0.50% increase. The average price of homes in February 2006 was $502,600, compared to $476,932 in February 2005, which represents a 4.6% increase. Approximately 20 homes sold in February 2006 and 25 in February 2005. The data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in February 2006 compared to the same period last year.
The median price of homes was $530,950 in January 2006, compared to $483,000 in January 2005, which represents a 9.9% increase. The average price of homes in January 2006 was $528,416, compared to $551,904 in January 2005, which represents a 3.20% drop. Approximately 16 homes sold in January 2006 and 28 in January 2005. The data for January 2006 was mixed, as the median price showed a moderate increase from last year, while average prices dropped.
So what does the above data tell us? Overall, there was a 21.3% decline in the number of homes sold during this period from 2006 to 2005. Four months out of seven (February, March, May and July) demonstrated increases in both median and average prices from the same period last year. The magnitude of the increase ranged from half a percent to 10%. The months of April and January had mixed findings, with average prices decreasing slightly (less than 3.2%), and median prices increasing 5% to 10%. In contrast, the June data showed a downward trend in both median and average prices with a range of 4% to 6%.
The data above suggests that although there are monthly variations, on balance, homes in the College Grove area continue to demonstrate price gains. Continued monitoring of sale data in subsequent months is needed to identify enduring market trends.
Be sure to consult your Realtor on other factors that influence home pricing before buying or selling real estate in College Grove.
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